QB’s will be the key on Championship Sunday
All 4 teams playing this Sunday have one thing in common…a great defense. All 4 teams ranked in the top 6 in points allowed over the regular season and all ranked in the top ten in overall defense. Though playoff football is unpredictable and anything can happen…I’m not expecting a ton of points to be scored on Sunday. So each game could come down to a handful of plays. To get to the point, all 4 teams are very good, but they all have strengths and weaknesses. It all boils down to matchups and who can step up in the biggest game of the year and lead their team to the Super Bowl. Let’s take a look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses, what their challenges will be, and who will have to play well in order for their team to win.
Jets@ Steelers
The Jets and the Steelers have the two best defenses playing today. Pittsburgh has the best rush defense in the league holding opponents to a ridiculous average of a 62.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season. On the other hand…New York was 3rd against the run allowing a very respectable 90.9 yards per game. Both teams run a 3-4 defense and have a phenomenal core of linebackers who will most certainly make running the ball very difficult. The Jets ran the ball for 106 yards in a win at the Pittsburgh one month ago, but the Steelers have taken notice and expect different results this Sunday. I anticipate both running games will be neutralized and the game will have to be won through the air. The key to any passing game is protection. The Jets passing game ranked in the bottom third of the league during the regular season, but ranked in the top 5 in sacks allowed with 28. The Pittsburg defense ranked 1st in sacks this year and have a genius Defensive Coordinator in Dick Labeau. So it seems simple enough…right? New York has to give Sanchez time to throw and he needs to take advantage of his opportunities. I think the Jets have more playmakers on offense with LT and Green in the backfield, not to mention that New York has a better receiving core, including a former Super Bowl MVP and a good young TE in Dustin Keller. Can Sanchez go into Heinz Field and beat the Steelers for the second time in just over a month? Yes…I do! Can Sanchez join the likes of Namath as the only other Jets QB to play in a Super Bowl? Yeah…he’s a young, but he has a great team around him. Not to mention, he’s won 4 road playoff games over the past two years. Plus…I think Sanchez has more going for him. Let me explain…
The Steelers were middle of the pack in passing offense during the regular season, just ahead of the Jets. But…this is what scares me if you’re Pittsburg? The Jets are just as good stopping the run and your going against one…if not two…of the 10 best corners in the league. To be honest…I don’t like Pittsburgh’s receivers as much as New York’s either. But…the Steelers have Big Ben! It all rests on his shoulders. This season, Pittsburgh allowed 43 sacks, 8th most in the league. Imagine what that number could have been if Roethlisberger wasn’t 6-5, 250 with a freakish ability to get him self out of trouble, scramble and create a big play. To make things worse, they allowed 6 sacks and Roethlisberger also fumbled once, which was taken in for a score. With Rex Ryan at the helm, I anticipate the Jets will be able to get pressure and Ben will have to escape, protect the ball and find open receivers. Also, a big play to a burner like Mike Wallace would be huge and would open the run game a bit more for Pittsburgh.
It’s all going to come down to the quarterbacks and protection. I think the Jets will protect Sanchez well enough for him to make the throws he needs to win the game. With the Jets ability to confuse offenses and apply pressure, along with corners that have the potential to completely shut down WR’s, I tend to be leaning towards New York in this matchup. In the end, the quarterback who protects the ball the best, escapes pressure, extend plays with their feet and makes good throws in big situations will have their team playing in Dallas. I found this game very hard to pick but…
I like the Jets
24-23
Packers@ Bears
Yeah…it’s a great matchup. The Packers and Bears are playing in the playoffs for only the second time ever in their 89 year history. The only other time was way back in 1941, when Chicago defeated Green Bay 33-14 for the Western Division title. But…I found this game a little easier to pick. Let me tell you why…
Like the other game…both teams have tremendous defenses. The Bears had the number 2 rush defense in the NFL during the regular season, allowing just over 90 yards a game, but that’s about all the Bears can hang their hat on. Even if the Bears shut down the run, it shouldn’t really matter so much to Green Bay because they haven’t run the ball well all year anyway. Even though, James Starks has stepped up for them this post-season. Chicago’s defense was 17th in sacks and 20th in pass defense this season and are about to face the hottest quarterback on the planet. It sure doesn’t look too promising for Chicago, but they do have Peppers, Urlacher, and Briggs on that defense, so that’s a plus. The problem is Chicago’s offense allowed the most sacks in the NFL this year by far with 56 and Jay Cutler has a track record of throwing bad interceptions. Even worse news, the Packers defense ranked 2nd in sacks with 47. Cutler also has to deal with Charles Woodson and Tramond Williams lurking on the outsides. And honestly…does anybody think the Bears have one good receiver? Maybe Bears fans…I suppose. Anyways…besides playing at home, Chicago doesn’t have a whole lot going for them. But…that’s why they play the game. I expect the Packers to get good pressure and Cutler must avoid making mistakes. Actually…last week Cutler used his legs to get one score and escaped pressure multiple times, extending plays and moving the chains. This is exactly what he has to do if the Bears are going to win.
As for Green Bay…what’s not to like? They have a quarterback who is absolutely dialed in! Last week, Rogers ran and threw all over Atlanta’s defense from start to finish, narrowly avoiding sacks multiple times, and seemed to make the Falcons pay for it every time. Rogers has multiple playmakers at wide receiver with Jennings and Driver, but he also has depth with Jones and Nelson who are definitely capable receivers. Defensively, the Packers are one of the best against the pass. Green Bay has 3 Pro Bowlers, led by corners Charles Woodson and Tramond Williams, along with Nick Collins at safety. Woodson always seems to find his way to the ball and will be a nightmare for Cutler all game. Also, with names like Clay Mathews, A.J. Hawk and B.J.Raji in the front 7, I think the Packers have the advantage defensively. That being said…I still believe the Packers fate will rest on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers.
As with the other game, I don’t expect either team to run the ball particularly well. I do expect the Bears to get some pressure, but…I think Rogers escape ability and accuracy throwing on the run will be the difference in this game.
I like the Packers
31-17
Now of course, other factors can impact the game, such as special teams, but I believe QB play is the most important facet in the game of football. Quarterbacks can bail you out of bad situations every time. It’s always been hard to run the ball in the playoffs and I don’t expect that to change now. I know stats aren't everything, but it gives you a good idea of what to expect. So…a trip to Super Bowl XLV will most likely rest on the play of the 4 quarterbacks. This is where legends are made…and legends grow bigger….
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